The application of a trainer study to your handicapping is a very simple one due to the fact that complete trainer results are now being made available in the Racing Form.

In this study, as a handicapper, we are only concerned with one figure and that is the win percent of the trainers. We have found through an intense study that approximately only 30 % that will. Thus the rule of 70/30.

To handicap a race you must first look to the trainers name and then find his or her win percent for the year. If this percent is 9 % or greater, then this trainer will qualify for the race being handicapped. In approximately 87 % of all races won, the winning horse is entered by a trainer who qualified under the rule of 9 % or greater that was just mentioned.

The above rule could possible vary from one race to another, but it should never vary more than 1 %. So it is advisable to stay with the 9 % rule unless a lesser percent is absolutely significant. In the event the trainer has had less than 9 starts without a win, then the trainer's horse would be accepted as eligible for today's race.

The above mentioned rules of play apply to all types of races under all conditions, but will not produce the same results in maiden or maiden claiming races.

However, in maidens the results are still strong and when a trainer inherits a new horse with good qualifications to its stable, you may want to stretch the 9 % rule.

There are only 4 additional reasons not to eliminate a horse from a race if the trainer has a win percent of less than 9 %.

1. Do not eliminate the trainers horse in question, if he just claimed a horse that won his last race, providing he is not stepping up 2 class levels or more from his last race.

2. Do not eliminate the trainer's horse if the wins showing in his win percent have been achieved by the horse that he has entered today.

Example: 12 starts for the meet with only one win. This represents an 8 % win average. If the one win of the trainer is coming from this horse and his win was accomplished in one of his last 2 races, then keep the horse in.

3. In the event that the horse had significant trouble in his last race and the outcome of the race could have deprived the trainer of a win, we will consider this horse only if this one win would have moved the trainers win percent to that of 9 % or better.

4.  Do not eliminate the trainer's horse if the horse just won his last race out.

This excuse for the trainer's win percent should be approached with caution. If the horse finished within 2 or 3 lengths of the winner and you really think it could have won without the problems that it had encountered in the last race, then count the race as a win, but don't go looking for excuses. This rule should be applied very sparingly.

4. Do not eliminate the horse if the trainer has won a race with this horse in one of it's last 2 and the win was within 35 days from today's race.

As you can see, your first rule in handicapping a race is to use the trainers win percent to keep his horse in or to eliminate him from the race.This is a very simple procedure and should be followed diligently. Please do not run scared if you lose a few because the overall picture should definitely be to your advantage.

The condition of a horse on the day of a race is still the most important factor of whether or not the horse shall turn in a decent effort. Unfit horses do not win races. In our previous works, we went searching for reasons to forgive a horse for a poor performance.

We have, however, now changed our attitude from being lenient to strict. This is the second rule of your handicapping. We are going to eliminate horses by a few steadfast rules and we will forgive horses for a poor performance very rarely.

We suggest you apply the following eliminating factors in the order that they are given and please realize that as soon as a horse has one negative factor that it can not be accused for, it is to be eliminated from the race.

Let's eliminate most of the losers.

1. DATES (DAYS AWAY FROM LAST RACE) - Eliminate a horse from a race that has been away from the races for a time period of longer than 4 months in claiming or maiden races or 6 months in any other type of race. 

If upon the completion of your handicapping you're top horse has been away from the races more than 30 days, play him along with your second choice as a 2 horse win play providing the odds allow a reasonable profit. He may be played as a single win play only when he has a class level advantage of 2 class levels over the final contenders which will be explained later. In the event your horse does not have a 2 class advantage or the odds that allow a 2 horse win play, the race should be passed.

To sum up, handicap all horses that have raced within the last 4 months for maidens and claimers or 6 months for any other type of race. Use all of our following handicapping rules starting with number 2 of this the Condition Rule.

Exception to the 6 month rule. Beware of any foreign quality horse having his first start in the U.S. within a time period of 9 months

2. AGE 

Eliminate any horse 7 years old and older unless he had a good race in his last out with a win in one of his last four races.

A word of caution - if an older horse qualifies as stated above and becomes your play, remember before you invest your money that he is an old horse. And old horses do have a way of showing their age if tested and are therefore, not the best to rely on. Suggest that you play the older horse to win along with your next best horse in the race.

3. NON-WINNERS IN 2 YEARS

Eliminate any horses, that hasn't won a race in 2 years or more.

4. WIN LAST RACE

A. Eliminate any horse that won his last race if it does not return to races within 29 days.

Do not eliminate if the horse is being entered in to a race that is a class level of a NW3 allowance race or higher, or is a 2 or 3 year old horse who has just broke his maiden as long as he is not dropping in class off a maiden win.

Do not eliminate if the horse won the last race and  is 7 Years or older. But to stay in the race he must have a workout within 10 days from today's race.

Do not eliminate if the horse won it's last race and was claimed. Make sure though the horse is coming back to the races in less than 40 days and is going up in class or running back at the same level today.

Do not eliminate if the horse won it's last race and shows in his recent history that he wins a race of a layoff of more than 29 days.  Make sure though the horse is coming back to the races in less than 40 days.

B. Eliminate any horse that won it's last race out in claiming company and who lost 1 length or more from stretch to finish and who won by less that 2 lengths in front and is going up in class today.

C. Eliminate any horse that is winning his last race and dropping in class today. Do not eliminate if he is dropping just one class level and was not entered at a full claiming price last out.

Example: Last race CL $25,000 but horse was entered for CL $22,500. Today dropping to CL $20,000. Do not eliminate.

D. Eliminate any horse returning to the same class level that did not run 3 lengths or less at the first call of his last race. Only exception would be if the horse had a bad break. But make sure that the horse does not always have a bad break.

Occasionally a horse that has a big win last out by 2 lengths or more will miss the 29 day rule by a day or 2. Keep him in if he has a minimum of 2 workouts since the win. And one of them must be a bullet and the last workout must be within 7 days of today's race.

5. FINISH LAST RACE

Eliminate any horse that finished last in his last race or finished more than 12 lengths behind the winner.

Exception to this rule: If the horse had major trouble.

Major trouble is blocked, checked, forced wide (not just wide), steadied, bumped off stride, bumped hard, clipped heels, bad break or slow start (unless the horse has a history of bad breaks or poor starts), in tight, stumbled, reared, close quarters, loose bandages, lost whip, saddle slipped, hit rail, squeezed start, broke through gate, etc..

Also an exception to a horse that finished last or more than 12 lengths behind is if the horses was moved up to 2 class levels or higher from his 2nd race back to his last race (and he's never been able to turn in a good performance in his past in the same class level of his last race) and is dropping 2 class levels today.

6. DECLINING LENGTHS

This rule is in 2 parts.

Do not apply this rule to any horse that fits one of the following situations.

1. To any horse that finished 1st in it's last race.

2. To any horse that had a bad break in it's last race.

3. To any horse whose next to last race was route distance and his last race was a sprint race.

4. To any horse running on the dirt today whose last race was on the grass and whose previous race was on the dirt. (Dirt to Grass to Dirt today).

5. To any horse who moved up 2 class levels from his 2nd race back to it's last, providing he is dropping 2 class levels today.

Part 1. Compare the lengths behind at the first call of the 2nd race back to that of the lengths behind at the first call of the last race.

Do the exact same thing for the second call.  Compare the lengths behind at the second call of the 2nd race back to that of the lengths behind at the second call of the last race.

If the horse is losing any amount of lengths at both first calls of the last race compared to the same first 2 calls of the 2nd race back, he is to be eliminated.

EXAMPLE:

                  1ST CALL     2ND CALL

 Last Race        4                      5

Second Race    3                      3

In his last race he was 4 lengths behind at the first call, while in the second race back at the same call he was 3. He lost 1 length from 1 race to the other. In the 2nd call of his last race. He was 5 lengths behind and at the 2nd call of his previous race he was still 3 lengths. Again, he showed a loss of 2 lengths from his 2nd race back to the last. Any time that a horse shows a loss of any amount at both calls, it is to be eliminated from the race, providing the last race did not fall under one of the previous situations mentioned.

Part 2. Compare the lengths behind at the first call of the 2nd race back to that of the lengths behind at the first call of the last race.

Do the exact same thing for the last call or the end of the race.  Compare the lengths behind at the last call of the 2nd race back to that of the lengths behind at the last call of the last race.

If the horse is losing any amount of lengths at both calls of the last race compared to the same 2 calls of the 2nd race back, he is to be eliminated.

EXAMPLE:

                  1ST CALL     LAST CALL

 Last Race        4                     6

Second Race    3                     3

In his last race he was 4 lengths behind at the first call, while in the second race back at the same call he was 3. He lost 1 length from 1 race to the other. In the 2nd call of his last race. He was 6 lengths behind at the last call of the most recent race and 3 lengths behind at the last call of his previous race. Again, he showed a loss this time he lost 3 lengths from his 2nd race back to the last. Any time that a horse shows a loss of any amount at both calls, it is to be eliminated from the race, providing the last race did not fall under one of the previous situations mentioned.

7. HARD RACE

Do not apply this rule to good 2 or 3 year old horses. Good means any quality other than cheap claimers at your track.

Eliminate any horse that had a driving finish from the stretch call to the finish and is returning to the race in 14 days or less.

An example of a driving hard finish is a horse that is fighting for the lead from the stretch call to the finish of his last race. Example: - a nose, neck, or head at the stretch call and at the finish of the race the horse finishes the race by 1 length or less.

The horse might also be on the lead at the stretch call by 2 lengths or less and then finish the race by less than 2 lengths. This is also a hard race.

8. DISTANCE

This rule does not apply to Maiden races or to any 2 or 3 year olds. If none of the above applies then a horse must have run in his past either first or second or within 3 lengths of a distance similar to today's distance in question. Otherwise the horse is eliminated.

If the horse does not qualify for distance then eliminate from the race. A word of caution, if the horse to be eliminated is a wire to wire (early speed horse) he may be able to do just that - wire the field and steal the race. If he is the only early speed horse in the race, you may want to keep him in as a save horse. However, most horses with a racing history do very poorly stretching out for the first time.

9. TRACK SURFACE

Eliminate any horse that is running on a surface today that he has not run on in the last year - such as dirt to turf, or turf to dirt.

The only exception to this rule is Graded Stakes races.

10. RECENT ACTIVITY

Do not apply this rule, if there is only 1 horse remaining in the race at this point of handicapping.

Eliminate any horse that has not had a race in the last 20 days or if the horse has not raced in 20 days has not had a workout within 16 days. Also eliminate any horse, that won it's last race and hasn't had a workout in 16 days.

One exception to the above rule is if a horse has no workouts showing in it's past or has obviously won a race without a workout in 20 days.

To sum up Condition. Please eliminate all horses that have any one of these eliminating factors and apply the following step only to those that have not been eliminated.

11. DROP CLASS

Eliminate and horse that is dropping 5 class levels or more in a Claiming race, unless the horse was moved up 2 classes from the 2nd race back to his last. Look to RULE 3 CLASS to describe how to find class.

To determine the class of a horse remaining you must first determine the class of the race in which it is going to run. This is accomplished by reading the conditions of the race relating those conditions to our MASTER CLASS RATING CHART and our CLASS RATING ADJUSTMENT CHART. (The charts are included)  When using the charts remember one factor and that is the lower the number the better the class.

LET'S RATE A RACE

As an example - A Claiming $50,000 race at Santa Anita would be a 7 class while a Claiming $50,000 race at Louisiana Downs would be a 11 class.

Let Me Explain How: First you look at your MASTER CLASS RATING CHART to find the class of the race. This race is a Claiming $50,000 race. Look at the MASTER CLASS RATING CHART for Claiming 50,000. You will see 50,000-41,000 and beside that number is 7. Then look at the CLASS RATING ADJUSTMENT CHART to class the track, Santa Anita - Abbreviation is SA. You will see a 0. Add the 7 and the 0 together. It totals 7. So the Class rating for a Claiming $50,000 race at Santa Anita is 7.

Classified Allowance and Non-Graded Handicaps or Stakes races are equal to each other. A Classified Allowance and a Non-Graded Handicap or Stakes race for instance at Santa Anita both are a Class 3 (3+0).

Graded Stakes races are evaluated as follows:

A Grade III is one class level better than a Classified Allowance or Non-Graded Handicap. A Grade II Stakes is one class level better than a Grade III Stakes and a grade I Stakes is one class level better than a Grade II. At all tracks in the United States, as well as in Europe, the Graded Stakes are equal to each other. The South American Tracks are out. A Grade I Stakes in Argentina, for example, would be equivalent to a Classified Allowance or a 3 Class at a major track.

A Grade I Stakes is a 0 Class rating, one class level better than a Grade II Stakes which is rated as a 1 race. Grade II is 1 level better than a Grade III which is rated as a 2 and a Grade III is one class level better than that of a Classified Allowance or Non-Graded Handicap. So Grade III is a 2 and a Classified Allowance or a Non Graded Stakes is a 3. However, this only holds true at tracks that receive a 0 adjustment from the Class Rating Chart. For all other tracks penalize all Non-Graded Handicap races including Classified Allowances through the use of the Class Rating Adjustment Chart.

Make sure you classify each race before you attempt to find the class of each horse. Once you have accomplished the above you are now ready to class each horse.

Now that we have accomplished how to find the class of a track. Let's learn how to find the class of each horse. Please keep in mind that we are not going to give a horse credit for more than it has been able to accomplish in the past.

We use the lengths behind the race the horse finished to help determine the class of a horse. The first step is to understand how to convert a horse's class using the lengths behind that he was at the finish of the race. If a horse wins a race he will be given credit for the class of that race. However, if he does not win, we will penalize the class of the race in which he raced according to the following chart:

1/4 length to 5 1/4 lengths behind the winner penalize the horse's class by 1 class level.

Example: Claiming $32000 at Santa Anita equals 9. The horse finished 2 lengths behind the winner. His class from this race would be a 10. (9 + 1).

5 1/2 lengths to 9 1/4 lengths behind the winner penalize the horse's class by 2 class levels.

Example: Claiming $32000 at Santa Anita equals 9. The horse finished 7 lengths behind the winner. His class from this race would be a 11. (9 + 2)

9 1/2 lengths to 14 1/4 lengths behind the winner penalize the horse's class by 3 class levels. (9+3)

Example: Claiming $32000 at Santa Anita equals 9. The horse finished 11 lengths behind the winner. His class from this race would be a 12.

14 1/2 lengths or more behind the winner, you would penalize by 4 class levels, but it is advisable not to rate a horse off this type of finish.

SPECIAL NOTE:

If a horse finished in the race you are rating for class by a head, nose or neck do not penalize the horse 1 class level. But penalize State bred races by 1 class level unless the horse has won in open company for a similar class level or higher.

To find the class of a horse we start looking to the races that the horse ran in it's last 3 starts but not more than approximately 6 months back from the month that he is racing in today.

Example: Today's race is in the month of November. Look at the dates of the last 3 races. If any of those are more than 6 months from today do not  use the race in finding the class of a horse

Let us look at the last 3 past performances of a horse. We start figuring a horse's class from the 3rd race back to the present.

First rate the race itself.

Date of Today's Race - November 28

The Class of today's race is Claiming $16000.

Track is Hollywood Park. Look at your Master Class Rating Chart until you find where Claiming 16,000 would fit. You will see under CLAIMING 18,500-15,000. And beside that you will see a 12. This makes the class of today's race a 12. Now look at your CLASS RATING ADJUSTMENT CHART to find the class of the track you are handicapping - Hollywood Park. You will see that the abbreviation for Hollywood is HOL. And beside HOL you will see a 0 (zero). So 12 for a $16000 Claiming race and 0 for the Track Hollywood Park gives you a total of 12 for a Claiming $16,000 race at Hollywood Park.

Now let's rate the horse

You must be sure to classify each race before you attempt to find the class of each horse. Once you have accomplished the above you are now ready to class each horse either with a zero (0), or a plus (+) or a minus (-) class rating. This is accomplished by comparing the class of the horse to the actual class of the race that it is going to run in. A plus (+) is better than a zero (0) and zero (0) is better than a minus (-). It's simple. If the race is an 8 class and the horse has an 8 class rating, the horse receives a zero (0) rating. When the class of the horse equals is the class of the race, it is par and par equals zero. If the conditions of the race were the same and the horse was rated as a 9 class then his rating would be a minus (-1) class. This is one class level cheaper, then that of today's class.

Likewise, if the horse was a 10 class and today's race was a 13 class, it would be rated as a +3 class or 3 class levels better than today's race. Basically all we are doing is comparing the class number of the conditions of the race that you are handicapping today to the final class number of each horse running in the race.

EXPLANATION OF HOW TO RATE A HORSE

First of all we are going to start looking at the 3rd race back in the horse's history as long as it is within 6 or 7 months from today. Remember, to look up the type of race using your MASTER CLASS RATING CHART and the class of the racetrack using your CLASS RATING ADJUSTMENT CHART. Then you add the 2 numbers together.

Here is an explanation of what to do using the Past Performances of a horse.

Let's do an example. The horse's 3rd race back is October 4 at Santa Anita. The race was a Claiming $25000. First we must find the class of the race. Look to your Master Class Rating Chart and you will find Claiming $25,000 under CLAIMING RACES 28,500-23,000. Claiming $25,000 race fits right in the middle. To the right you will see a 10.  Next look at the CLASS RATING CHART to rate the racetrack the horse ran at. You will note that Santa Anita is a 0 class track. So far the class of the horse is 10 + 0. The horse though did not win the race. He finished 5 1/4 lengths behind the winner of the race. So we must calculate his lengths behind. Look to your CLASS CONVERSION CHART ABOVE. If a horse is 5 1/4 lengths behind you will penalize the horse's class by 1 point. So the horse's final class for this race is 10 + 0 + 1 or 11.

In his next to last race on 26 October again at Santa Anita, the horse finished 2nd - 7 1/2 lengths behind the winner in a Claiming $20000 race. (Class 11). The track class (Santa Anita) remains the same 0. However, the horse did not win this race. In fact, he is losing a cheaper race - Claiming $20,000 is a cheaper race than Claiming $25,000. In fact he finished 7 1/2 lengths behind the winner. His class for this race would be 11+0+2 or 13 - a Claiming $20,000 race is 11, and Santa Anita is a 0 Track Class. And when a horse is 7 1/2 lengths behind, the horse he is penalized by 2 class levels using your CLASS CONVERSION CHART ABOVE. Therefore the horse's class is now 13 (11+0+2).  Because the horse dropped in class and did not win we make his class now a 13. He is no longer the 11 class that he was in his 3rd race back because he did not win his Oct 26 race. The horse dropped in class and did not win.. This makes his new class level that of a 13 or a -1 class rating.

In his last race on 5 November he finished 5 1/4 lengths behind the winner in a Claiming race $25000 race. It would appear that his class off this race would be an 11.

But since in his 2nd race back he was not capable of winning for a lesser class, we ignore the class of it's last race out and take his class from the 2nd race back on 26 October which was a 13 class.

The class rating of the race today was a Claiming $16000 or a 12 class and the horse is a 13 class. Therefore, he gets a final class rating of a -1.

As explained in this example, do not give the horse the benefit of a higher class level if in his recent races prior to this last race he could not win for a lesser class. If he currently cannot win for cheaper class, we do not want to credit him with a better class than the one that he has recently earned.

If a horse won his last race out you may take his class from the 2nd race back, if it is higher, as long as it doesn't move him up more than 2 class levels at the same track or 3 class levels shipping from another track.

Exceptions: To Moving a Horse Up in Class:

If a horse won it's 2nd race back and was moved up 2 class levels or more in it's last race, it would receive the class from the race it won except if it finished it's last race less than 5 lengths behind the winner of the higher class race. If this occurs, rate the horse off it's last race.

Also horses that have serious trouble or ran wide in their last race should have the finish of their race helped by 4 lengths. After the adjustment has been made re-examine the class of the horse using the previous rules.

Reminder: The above adjustment is only to be used on the last race.

Class is a major part of our handicapping and at this point once you have rated each horse you should eliminate any horse that is not within 1 class level of the top rated horse in the race.

Example: A horse that is a +1 compared to a horse that is a 0 (zero). The +1 horse would be 1 class level better than the 0 (zero) horse

Occasionally a horse coming off a big win may have a chance to graduate even if he is 2 class levels cheaper than the horses remaining. If you feel a horse off his last performance can graduate, apply the next rule "Speed" to this horse.

If after finding the class of each of the contenders, you can find yourself with only 1 horse remaining because of his class advantage, this horse becomes your play.

Using the Beyer Speed Ratings in the Daily Racing Form, look at the last two races on each horse that has not been eliminated from the race.

Take the highest speed rate of the horse's last 2 races. Then find the horse (or those remaining) with the highest rating and compare that rating with the highest rating found on each of the other contenders. Try to keep your 2 races you rate for speed within 6 or 7 months.

The only exception to the above rule are as follows:

1. If the horse's last 2 races were 2 class levels higher than today's race.

2. If the horse's last 2 races were at the opposite distance of today's race.

3. If a horse had serious trouble in both of the his last 2 races.

In the event that a horse had one of the above excuses, you may wish to look back to the third race and occasionally possibly the fourth to find the final rating of a horse.

SPECIAL NOTE: If a horse is more than 4 points than the remaining contenders and is within 2 class levels of your top class horse, he will become your play.

To sum up. Any horse that comes up with a Beyer rating that is within 4 points of the top rated horse, the horse shall remain in the race for further consideration.

Exception:

1. If the horse has dropped 19 or more Beyer speed ratings from his 2nd race back to the last race, eliminate unless the last race was more than 2 furlongs from the 2nd race back.

All others are to be eliminated.

With your final contenders remaining continue onto Rule 5 to find your horse to play.

The only horse that should be left in the race at this point are those that are within 1 class level of your top class rated horse and those that were within 4 Beyer speed ratings of your top Beyer speed rated horse. Or the horse that is more than 4 points and within 2 class levels not 1 class level. He will become your play.

Otherwise of the horses within 1 Class Level, the horse with the highest speed rating becomes your play. In the event that you have a tie between 2 horses and theses 2 horses are 2 Beyer Speed Ratings better than those remaining, then you have a 2 horse win play. Every other race is to be a pass race unless the odds allow for multiple wagering.

SPECIAL NOTE:

Never play your top horse as a single play if the jockey on board does not have 9 % win average. When this occurs, the race becomes a 2 horse play or a pass race, if the odds do not allow.

TO SUM UP

There's nothing complicated about the previous Five Rules. However, You must follow them in the sequence that they were given. For example, please do not use speed before class. Check your percentages and if you find you are real consistent on your playable races we recommend that you use the Mother Load as your investment plan.

EXOTIC PLAY

For your trifecta and exacta play, we suggest that you use the horses remaining within the 4 point speed spread. Or as close to that spread as possible. These same horse can be great for Pic 3, 4, and 6's.

Please apply these rules to workouts on paper before applying them at the track.

Any questions please email us at winners@phahorseracing.com

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